Problem 07

Analysis:

We reckon on two spade tricks and five in diamonds. We need two more, and we have opportunities in hearts and clubs, but we can only afford to lose the lead once.

This deal is about selecting the setup line that produces most tricks. We can set up one trick in hearts while losing the lead once, but we can set up two tricks in clubs while losing the lead once. If we play on hearts first, we will still be short of our nine-trick goal and could then no longer afford to lose the lead again. We would risk making only eight tricks.

If we play on clubs first, we guarantee our contract because we set up the two required tricks in one go.

There are two subtleties. The first is essential to guaranteeing our contract. Obviously, we have no problem in diamonds unless they split 4-0. But we can cope with that too if we play correctly! We have a finesse position against the jack in both hands: we have QT in hand and A9 in dummy. We must not play ♦A on the first round, or we lose the finesse position in dummy. Play ♦K first. That way we discover a 4-0 split without ruining either finesse position.

The second subtlety is this. Once we have guaranteed our contract, we would like to maximize the chance of an additional trick in hearts. If West has ♥A, there will be nothing we can do to stop a spade winner, but if East has the ♥A, we can minimize the risk in spades by holding up on the second spade round. That means we need to win the first trick with the ace in hand, not the king in dummy.

So, take the first trick with ♠A and play on clubs. When West wins the second round, they will lead spades, but we will hold up for a round and win the third spade round. We should now play a diamond to our king.

As the cards lie, we discover that West started with four diamonds, and we then lead low towards dummy’s A9 and take all our diamond tricks. At that point we cannot afford to set up another trick in hearts because West might still have ♥A and two winning spades. So we must take our winning club. If East has defended perfectly while discarding five times, they will have ♥A and ♣10 left. But there is quite a good chance they will be left with two hearts and we will make ten tricks.